AdEx in 2021: Surging ahead, but digitally trapped
A peek into where ad spends went last year and where they are headed tomorrow
Till the eve of the lockdown, India was close to $2.94 trillion in size and trotting towards the $5-trillion glory. As the pandemic has dragged us back by over one-fifth of our economic size, questions arise on what would drive the economy towards green pastures.
The advertising industry is the health barometer of any growing economy as it promotes what is manufactured and marketed. Once sold, this consumption drives the economy.
For a prospering economy, the benchmark of advertising expenditures would be 1 per cent or above of the country’s gross domestic product or GDP. In India, it is way below — at ₹82,904 crore in 2019-20, that’s under 0.3 per cent.
Recent ad expenditure forecasts by some leading agencies predict we are out of the woods. We are still short of touching the 2019 numbers, but the digital surge has come as a welcome saviour during the pandemic. The digital category will grow to garner the second largest market share after television. In the years ahead, it is likely to leave television behind too.
Predictably, everyone is revamping their “digital marketing infrastructure”. As a result, a lot of one-man shops operated by mavericks have sprung up, promising the world to advertisers; but only time can say where they will take us.
So what’s likely in store in 2021?
Digital sales hero
So coming to reforms, it is imperative to get a fix on how we got here ? To answer that it will be relevant to find the purpose when there was credibility and sanity in media ; and what happened in the past few years. If you rewind close to 7-8 decades you will find the purpose then was societal good and not profit. The purpose was to get independence and credible papers like the Indian Express, The Hindu, Ananda Bazar Patrika, The Statesman , Malayala Manorma etc played a vital role in helping the Mahatma, catalyze his non violent fight against the British.
Over the years India progressed and was cruising as a developing economy. Over the last 3 decades or so this purpose of societal good changed to profit.. The next generation at the newspaper house, had taken over and he or she was educated abroad to attain only green dollars in their eyes. Till the early nineties this commercialism also did not prove to be a dampener as we had very credible editors and journalists like Khushwant Singh, Kuldip Nayyar, BG Verghese, KV Kamath, Sayed Naqvi, S Nihal Singh, Arun Shourie, Prabhash Joshi, MJ Akbar, etc etc to name a few. Each one had an indepth understanding of news stories and also had a pulse of the readers mind. This critical connect is missing now. The anchors are the editors and as well as the owners. This is the problem.
Since the News Television, is where the disease has spread beyond belief, some concrete steps that could arrest and rectify the blunders, and help the fourth estate get some respect in the minds of the people.
The pandemic has been the sunrise phase for the digital expert who is a whiz at Master Excel spreadsheets, and can do correlation and regression analysis of any two or more variables for a specified period of time. The selection of the variables is critical and it is here that the digital person has his or her say. Marketers need to be careful about this and they can only do so once they understand the medium, the logistics and mechanics. Big multinationals have realised this and have hired qualified sales staff for e-commerce. The past year has shown a dramatic increase in e-commerce in grocery, essential supplies and even durables like television, refrigerator and other household appliances. This trend will create a silent undercurrent between the young middle-aged digital sales expert and the conventional hardworking sales manager who has been toiling in the sun for years.
Health products will boom
‘Immunity’ is the new buzzword for positioning products, and marketers are using it across categories. It is here that advertising comes in to make the brands and ensure inelastic pricing. Compare the price of water purifiers, air purifiers, honey, health medicines, chyawanpraash, health apparel, cycles, and so on before the pandemic and now, and you might be surprised. A bicycle with some cosmetic changes to suit the youth has become a status symbol, and sales have zoomed.
Innovate now
TV and the print medium were, till 2019, garnering the lion’s share of the advertising pie. This has changed and their market shares will erode faster if they do not innovate and reinvent.
Print’s share almost halved to ₹10,350 crore from ₹18,164 crore in 2019 (see chart). Print’s marketing and sales tactics need to address the current attention span of the reader. Content should be more viewpoint-based so as to create the noticeability of ‘breaking views’ vs ‘breaking news’. This viewpoint will help viewers create new heroes in their peer group and benefit the medium.
Dividend from social capital
Companies that show concern for the environment will benefit significantly. Labels on consumer brands will start highlighting this good social deed. But the establishment needs to put systems in place to ensure what is claimed is practised.
Widening Net in small towns
This is a double-edged sword. Low prices offered by cellular service providers are spurring usage by youngsters. However, consumption and dissemination of objectionable content among the youth is a concern .
Battle of screens
Advertisers will be investing in understanding screen time and usage per device. The share of mobiles vs the laptop vs the tablet vs TV. It will vary dramatically across different age groups and profiles. Understanding this behaviour will optimise returns for marketers.
Gaming will be the new spot in the sun
It has caught on like wild fire among youngsters as the sense of competitiveness and monetary benefits pumps the adrenalin. Once you win the addiction process starts kicking in unconsciously. This is why in some states policy makers and regulators are acting. The middle-aged groups are the late adopters. But gaming platform will see many innovations in monetizing using brands.
Losing the creative edge
Creativity is the first step towards grabbing attention or building receptivity with the consumer. This has suffered in the digital medium as instant gratification rules in the mind of the marketer. Instant impressions, clicks and lead generation procedures need to be re thought as they dilute the equity of the brand. This transformation may take time as you need marketers with a vision and passion to build brands. Currently we are in a phase of immediate results and this is a disguised form of greed. Digital planners who think long term will be eventual winners.
Buyers are the New Media
Lastly, we have entered an era where we are more important than ever before.
This means we will be stalked and controlled by digital experts who track and analyse our gadget usage and surfing patterns. Marketing of this “social content consuming behaviour” and matching it with specific brand profiles, makes it a goldmine for marketers but with no benefits to you and me. We have become victims of historical data, and algorithms rule our life. We are trapped — much like Abhimanyu caught in the chakravyuh in the Mahabharata, with no means of escape until he dies.
